​As Canadians wait for the next moves in President Trump’s  trade war to bring Canada to its knees, they should remember his long game.

“Trade” is not the only adjective that you can put in front of the word “war”.

Try “real.”  ​

Remember “lebensraum” (“living space”) from the 1930s? It was Hitler’s deluded marriage of expansionism and nationalism, allegedly necessary for ​Germany’s ​survival, that fueled his murderous pursuit of European domination. In Trump’s mind, Canada has fresh water, land, wheat, rare minerals, wood, aluminum, steel, uranium, lobsters and better maple syrup.

​Too few took Hitler seriously ​in 1938. We should take Trump seriously now, because annexation is not a fun family b​oard game.

Let’s answer a few questions:

* Is Trump serious about annexation ?

Yes. He has said it too many times, in too many places. He means business.

* Is he constrained in any meaningful way?

No. He’s surrounded by sycophantic true believers who support him in acting mean, quickly and unpredictably.

* Can he economically destroy Canada, bring us to our knees, begging to be State 51?

Opinions vary, but he can certainly hurt us, even while ​also hurt​ing the USA.

​                The “Canada has leverage” arguments aren’t ​completely reassuring; Trump will respond to every challenge with greater force than Canada can ​probably bring to bear.

​He ​recently mused ​”Maybe we’ll ​just put 100% tariffs on ALL  cars from Canada April 2nd. We don’t  want them.”

(So​, then? We gamble ​our ​future on CEOs Mary Barra (GM) and Jim Farley (Ford) and Liz Shuler (AFL​-CIO), begging like penitents, in front of Trump’s desk in the Oval Office?)

 * Can anyone else help us?

Short answer – How?

Effective answer – No, or probably not soon enough.

What other countries could come up with the financing quickly enough to make a difference?

We have no other geographic neighbours. Ships take time, there are no roads or pipelines to Europe or Asia.

 * Is a South-to-North armed incursion realistic to even think about?

It is not impossible, ​although ​horrific to contemplate.

The 1973 War Powers ​Resolution ​says the President cannot commit the US to armed conflict in a foreign land without the consent of Congress. (Easily granted by this appalling compliant US House and Senate!)

But a President always has the power to use military force to protect Americans and American interests under threat in foreign lands.

​                  The US invaded Grenada in 1983 “to protect American students” and Iraq in 2003, just because the President was itching to do it.

* So, would Canadians ever threaten Americans or American interests in Canada ?

With perhaps hundreds of thousands out of work and their families in trouble later this year,  Canadians will be understandably desperate, angry, frightened and wanting to do something!

Maybe a drunken bar fight with Americans living somewhere in Canada, or a Molotov cocktail thrown at the US Embassy or an Amazon fulfillment centre?

That could easily give Trump an excuse.

* Could Trump just create the provocation for an incursion? 

Sure. Remember the faked anti-German purges, provocations and murders in Czechoslovakia in 1938 before its annexation, and on the Polish-German border in late August 1939 which became Germany’s excuse for starting ​the Second World War.

Trump has the Proud Boys and ​o​ther pumped-up Christian Nationalist groups, all well-armed, who could  easily be encouraged to covertly head North and cause trouble.  And those groups have Canadian cousins who’d be ecstatic to join the chaos.

If Ontario Premier Doug Ford really cuts electricity heading south, there will be widespread US anger.

And events can spiral quickly out of control.

It would not take a lot of trouble in Canada directed against Americans to get Washington riled up enough to start down this very ​grim  road. Trump  has the power, he’d clearly love an excuse and is in control of a super-power machine, run by his lap dogs.

He can be mean and untrustworthy and never forget – he says he wants this!

* So, what do Canadians do right now?

Being turned on by one’s closest international ally and neighbour has created shock and disbelief here.

Boycotting Florida orange juice and Kentucky bourbon doesn’t seem enough!  We will have to suffer through.

A little sense of outrage from anywhere in USA would be comforting​, but don’t hold your breath! They’ve barely noticed.

But assuredly, we won’t be on our knees for this President.

 

AUTHOR:   Frank Koller is a former US foreign correspondent for CBC news and the author of an acclaimed book on American business

www.frankkoller.com